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$FF Valuation Analysis Part One: Static Analysis Recently, @FalconStable has been very popular, and there are various versions of the valuation for $FF, ranging from $1B to $10B. Personal Opinion Buy at $1B, accumulate below $2B, reduce holdings above $4B, and exit at $6B. This does not constitute investment advice, but rather presents an analytical perspective. Specific Analysis Below 👇 Valuation Upper Limit: $ENA Launch Situation Adjustment The initial circulation ratio of $FF is 23.4%, which is honestly quite high and will have an adverse impact on the total market cap. The FDV of $ENA reached $20B in the first week of its launch, partly because it is the absolute leader in the new Delta-Neutral stablecoin sector, and partly because the circulation ratio at the time of $ENA's TGE was only 9.5%. Assuming $FF has the same circulation market cap as $ENA at TGE, the total market cap upper limit would be around $8B. Considering that the stablecoin sector is already quite crowded, the current FDV of $ENA is only $9B, and $XPL is $15B, I personally believe that in extreme cases, $FF could reach $6B. Reasonable Valuation: Mcap/TVL Benchmarking $ENA Calculating with Mcap/TVL = 0.27, the total market cap of $FF should be $2B * 0.27 / 0.234 ~ $2.3B. New projects always have a premium (due to factors like early positive sentiment and higher profit and loss control), so I personally believe that accumulating below $2B is a strategy with a relatively high lower limit, and once profitable, the returns could be considerable. Considering the future growth of the protocol and sentiment premium, doubling to $4B is a suitable exit point. Depending on different risk preferences, starting to sell in batches above $2.5B with a grid-like strategy is also a good choice. Valuation Lower Limit: FDV/TVL Benchmarking $ENA The total market cap of $FF could drop to only $1.2B. A smaller estimate would be if $FF has no market-making experience like $RESOLV, which is very unlikely, as DWF is involved and there will at least be several rounds of market-making activity; a larger estimate could be $MORPHO (relative to $AAVE), and I lean towards this scenario, leading to the conclusion that a total market cap around $1B could be a good bet. Risk Points 1. Low institutional participation, future TVL growth relies solely on season 2 points flywheel. 2. DWF has a mediocre reputation, with potential for wash trading, leading to significant uncertainty. 3. Protocol revenue is semi-black box, with limited transparency and a high degree of control by the team. 4. The distribution of circulating chips remains unclear, posing potential risks.